According to macroeconomic analysts, in comparison with the low peak in April the industrial performance improved significantly, but on annual basis still a significant, over 30 per cent drop can be experienced in the performance of the sector. The experts agree that an improvement is expected in June, as well, however making up the damage caused by the pandemic will be a longer process. Based on the data published by the Central Statistic Office (KSH) on Tuesday, the effect of the business processes changed due to the corona virus pandemic was significant in May, as a consequence of which the industrial production was by 30.7 per cent lower than the high basis of a year earlier. After removing the working day effect, the production decreased by 27.6 per cent. At the same time, in comparison with the previous month the industrial output corrected by seasonality and working day factor it increased by 15.6 per cent indicating some recovery.
Péter Virovácz, the analyst of the ING Bank emphesized: recovery has started, but at the same time, it is clear that to achieve the production level of the period before the crisis will take much more time than the two months of falling down. Presently, the industrial production level is at the level of 2013. He stressed that easing the pandemic situation related restrictions really helped the industry. Based on the preliminary data, the reopening occurred not at the same rate everywhere; the highest drop was shown by the vehicle industry – he explained, adding: it is rare that in spite of such an effect the industrial production could increase even on monthly basis. ING’s analyst is expecting still advantageous data during the following months, then during autumn again a slowing down is expectable, so to achieve the pre-crisis production level still this year has a low probability.
Gábor Regős, leader of the macroeconomic business line of the “Századvég” Economic Research organization says: the strong data of the basis period partially explains the significant fallback in the May and annual performance of the sector. In his opinion, this significantly more disadvantageous data also show that the recovery of demand and re-starting of the industry will be a slow process. The vehicle production representing a high share of the Hungarian industry still shows significant fall back, and that confirms the necessity of the diversification of industry. In the next months the industrial performance may improve gradually, but he mentioned as a question when the sector’s, and within that especially the vehicle industry’s performance can return to its pre-crisis level.
David Németh, the analyst of K&H Bank the data were not surprising, at the same time the re-start seams to be slower than earlier expected. He added: though at monthly level the nearly 16 per cent increase in May indicates that the sector has started the coming back, the production is still by 15 per cent below the level of 2015. In additon to the abroad demand, the domestic consumption will determine the industrial performance this year, according to the present perspectives the fall back referring to the whole year can be even a two-digit percentage in the opinion of David Németh.
Gergely Suppan, the leader analyst of the Takarékbank (Savings Bank) emphesized that the domestic vehicle factories can re-start already in May. In spite of that, the fall back in the vehicle sector is extraordinary, in each of the processing sub-branches the production volume decreased. In the next months, the recovery of the industry may continue, as in the Audi factory located in Győr the third shift has been started up as of mid-June, and in the Suzuki factory located in Esztergom the second shift has been started up at the end of June. During the outstanding part of the year, he expects a gradual increase of the industrial production, which can be also supported by the putting into operation of new capacities mainly relating to the battery production. At the same time, a new wave of the corona virus could significantly set back the recovery, however due to the higher degree of preparedness of healthcare, the purchase of the protective tools, and the therapeutic use of certain promising medicines we are not expecting so strict closures as in the earlier months. At an increased uncertainty, the industrial production may decrease by 7 – 8 per cent, however in the next year due to the basis effects, an increase of even 12-13 per cent can be expected.